jaybo wrote:You agree that past performance is a factor. Can you at least grant me that this could POSSIBLY be a factor as well?
Sure it's possible. The whole thing could be scripted. The point is that to reach that conclusion, you have to believe that:
A) The producers are willing to risk completely destroying a hit show if word ever got out.
B) All of the judges who have said in no uncertain terms that the producers have
never influenced their decisions are complete and total liars, including both recently added judges (Ted Allen) and some guest judges who were present for controversial eliminations (Paul Kahan being one).
C) Their casting team and editors are so incompetent at creating drama that they have to resort to fixing results to keep the show interesting.
What I'm saying is that it makes no sense to presume this when there is a far simpler, perfectly straightforward scenario that doesn't involve a big cover-up. And if you're hell-bent on looking for conspiracy, you're going to find it no matter what the reality of the situation is.
jaybo wrote:Cooking is a male-dominated industry. I don't pretend to know the exact statistics. To me, the heads/tails analogy isn't valid because the outcomes are not statistically equal. The previous seasons aren't the statistical aberration, THIS ONE IS.
But that's the point -- there are
ALWAYS statistical abberations in
ANY system. If they do the show long enough, there will be two finalists with the exact same initials at some point. That doesn't mean it was by design. Heck, if they do the show long enough, at some point there will be a finals that's
ALL women. That doesn't mean the fix is in. And if you believe the producers would like for more women to go deep in the show, why do you automatically assume that they're doing so by taking the incredibly risky route of fixing the contest rather than simply taking extra care to cast great female chefs? Not to mention which, let's examine the gender breakdown in the finals:
Season 1: Two men, one woman
Season 2: Three men, one woman
Season 3: Two men, one woman
Season 4: Two men, two women (hypothesized)
So what you're essentially saying is that either the gender flip of a
single individual or the addition of
one woman to the finals over
four seasons would be evidence of a fixed contest. Also, consider the gender breakdown at this point in previous seasons:
Season 1: Four men, two women
Season 2: Five men, one woman
Season 3: Four men, two women
So, yes, there's all of this talk about how this many women have made it this far. But "this many women" is one more woman --
JUST ONE -- than there was at the same point in seasons 1 and 3. And this is the evidence that they're fixing the show? Also note that in seasons 2 and 3, they didn't start with an even M/F split. The women were down to begin with.
And what of this suggestion that this season was the aberration? Here are the number of episodes where the gender breakdown was either even or within one of being even for each season:
Season 1: 10/11
Season 2: 1/13
Season 3: 2/13
Season 4: 9/10
So they fixed season one, didn't fix season seasons two and three, then fixed season four? The "aberration" you speak of (nevermind that we're talking a sample size of
four here) has taken place precisely 50% of the time. We've had two seasons where the gender split was almost exactly equal for the entire season, and two seasons where the men got way ahead.
Point being, no this is not the weird statistical abberration you seem to think it is.
jaybo wrote:I'm not trying to say that Andrew was gone no matter what. They weren't going to eliminate him if he had made a great dish. It's not about any chef specifically. Lisa wasn't an obvious choice, so either Andrew or Spike were toast. (Andrew leaving does work out remarkably well for next week, though.) I will say that if any of the guys were up for elimination against two females and there isn't a CLEAR CUT CHOICE, then the guy is gone.
For instance, if Richard's team loses the Restaurant Wars next week and Stephanie and Antonia don't make any egregious errors, then he's out.
So if you're suggesting that men are selectively being eliminated over women on close calls, let's look at this season. Throwing out the weeks where the chopping block has been exclusively one gender, there have been seven eliminations where the judges could have eliminated a male or a female:
Nimma, Episode 1: Ryan blew the piccata and embarrassed himself, and Erik made that godawful mashed potato souffle. Was Nimma so obvious that they couldn't have eliminated Ryan or Erik instead? Gotta call this one close.
Erik, Episode 3: Soggy corn dogs vs. bad Waldorf vs. crappy pasta salad. Close.
Manuel, Episode 4: It seemed quite clear that the summer roll was a much worse dish than the rack of lamb, meaning that though four were on the block, the only two up for elimination were Manuel and Spike. So there wasn't really a gender split on the final decision.
Zoi, Episode 5: The salmon scales vs. underseasoned carpaccio episode. That sure as hell wasn't clear cut. In fact, many people seemed to think the judges were sparing Richard there. And if you say, okay, well, the carpaccio was the worst dish, they had to eliminate somebody from that team -- why not Spike? Close.
Ryan, Episode 6: The grill-off. Messy, blah chicken skewers vs. okay but boring (and largely premade) sausage & peppers vs. crappy inappropriate upscale. Close.
Mark, Episode 8: The kids dinner. Bad curry vs. bad chicken stew vs. bland beans. Close.
Nikki, Episode 9: I thought this one was pretty clear cut, but a
lot of people think it should have been Dale. I think we have to call this one close.
Andrew, Episode 10: Close.
By my count, that makes seven close calls -- three women, four men -- as close as you can get to perfectly even with an odd number of close calls. And even if you throw out Nikki's elimination, that's 4-2 in favor of the men. A small sample that's only
one decision away from being perfectly even. This is obvious bias?
To sum up:
1) If two women make it to the finals, it will only be a single gender flip or the addition of one woman over previous seasons. That's what's known as precisely zero statistical significance.
2) There is only one more woman at this point in the season than there were in seasons one and three, and the women started one down in seasons two and three.
3) This "exceptional" season of gender equality has, in fact, happened before, in season one.
4) The eliminations that you suggest favor eliminating men in close calls have, in fact, eliminated men 4-3 over women -- as close to even as you can be.
Your argument is flawed, I tells ya... FLAWED!

Wow... I really need to stop now.
Dominic Armato
Dining Critic
The Arizona Republic and
azcentral.com