The Bright Side of Global Economic Depression

nr706 wrote:Might do a number on some of your favorite restaurants, though.

Walking through Dominick’s and Walgreen’s recently, I noticed they were out of items I usually buy. This started me thinking that maybe retail outlets had already started cutting inventory, a prelude to the Second Great Depression and the shortages that according to CNN more than 50% of us believe to be inevitable.

The conversation that made the whole day worthwhile:
I stopped at a booth of bulk sellers of rice and grains. I inquired about the rice shortage, was it really real? I asked a guy who represented two different rice co-ops whose membership was 500 and 1500 (possibly 2000) rice growers. While in the USA and Canada, there is no shortage of rice. There are rice shortages worldwide due to crop failures in Australia and Asia.

He then outlined what was happening using the Phillipines as an example. The Filippinos eat rice 3X a day, it is an essential element in their diet. They normally buy their rice from Vietnam or Australia, where both had rice crop failures. Their need for rice is so great, they now turn to the United States for rice. They are willing to pay a premium to the domestic price to get this rice. It is his responsibility to get the best price for his rice co-ops, which presently is the international market. To sell domestically, he can only do this responsibly by offering the export price to domestic customers. While we have no shortage per se, the world market forces are influencing the final price of our domestic rice.

Domestic rice customers are now being granted allotments instead of buying all that they want. Domestic customers who may have abandoned contracts in the past who may be revisiting his co-ops as a source are being turned away. Sam's Club and Costco are not used to being given allotments. They also don't accept price increases less than 60 days advance warning. The rice market is so dynamic that price increase of 15% in a month is not unheard of presently. When one of his regular customers advised they will accept no more than a 2% increase, then he declines to sell them rice. He advised the U.S. market, due to these allotments, will have no shortage of rice though it will be paying more for rice.

Recognizing these events run in cycles, I learned the next rice harvest is not until October 15th. He was of the opinion this worldwide shortage of rice will likely not ease for a few years. If there is another crop failure, then I can see that may continue. If there isn't, then I cannot see how this could carry on for years. We both agreed we would have to wait and see what happens.

I commented I had not seen bananas at Costco for the last few months. He suggested it could be a similar issue like for the rice. A cost increase Costco would not accept, which meant the product was withdrawn from their offerings.

Cathy2 wrote:

Walking through Dominick’s and Walgreen’s recently, I noticed they were out of items I usually buy. This started me thinking that maybe retail outlets had already started cutting inventory, a prelude to the Second Great Depression and the shortages that according to CNN more than 50% of us believe to be inevitable.

Since you are regarded as a journalist in foodie circles, why don't you call Walgreen's and Dominick's to ask about your favorite goods, instead of guessing it fortells econonomic depressions? There is enough anxiety around without your adding fuel to the fire.

Encarta wrote:The Great Depression had a substantial and varied impact on the lives of Americans.... Although few people died from starvation, many did not have enough to eat. Some people searched garbage dumps for food or ate weeds. Malnutrition took a toll: A study conducted in eight American cities found that families that had a member working full time experienced 66 percent less illness than those in which everyone was unemployed.

Mike G wrote:Even by the goat-entrails standards of most economic reporting, divining a recession based on things going out of stock at Costco is kinda weak.

Anyway, I expect the press's portrayal of the economy to make a miraculous recovery beginning in just about a month.

Cathy2 wrote:I was simply illustrating how companies may balk at a price increase and decline, which Costco is merely an example.

Mike G wrote:Anyway, I expect the press's portrayal of the economy to make a miraculous recovery beginning in just about a month.

Cathy2 wrote:I would be very interested to know the specific products not found at Dominick's and Walgreen's. I have a Walgreen's nearby and a Dominick's I am in closer approximity to tomorrow. I am happy to play secret shopper, though I thought you were in the 'I loathe Dominick's' crowd and never stepped foot in the place.

Mhays wrote:I wonder how long it takes Global Economic Depression to trickle down to vermin? After all, they're living off our gardens and garbage...

Cathy2 wrote:So on the garbanzo bean and contact solution fronts, the sky is not falling.

teatpuller wrote:It would be pretty cool if whole foods started selling fresh mackerel & sardines, beef tongue, tripe, 50 lb bags of kidney beans, etc.

Why wait for Whole Foods to offer them? They sell a lot of that stuff at Caputo's, where they're never out of garbanzos.