Kentucky Derby 2005: And the Winner Is...

Kentucky Derby 2005: And the Winner Is...

In 1986, my friend patoriq and I put 20 dollars on Ferdinand (Willie Shoemaker riding) and collected several hundred dollars on this 18-1 long-shot. Since then, we’ve been pretty much convinced that we have the makings of professional gamblers, and we’ve won on several occasions (including a big win in 1997 when we mistook our choice’s number for the poll position, and accidentally put our money on Silver Chair, which won and returned nicely).

Our Ritual for Guaranteed Winning includes placing a few bets at Maywood on Friday night, and then going down the road to eat a Johnnie’s Italian beef or two. I don’t know why this works, but it does (sometimes)

Anyway, as part of my continuing tradition of service to this board, I feel obligated to share with you our choice for the 2005 Kentucky Derby: Sort It Out. This horse, trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, is on a rising tear, coming in 12, 4, 2, and 1 in the last four races, and dynamite on a dry track. Tomorrow is the drawing for poll position, and if Sort It Out gets a good spot, the bet will be golden come Saturday. Unless it rains, in which case all bets are off.

If you win on this, you can buy me a mint julep the next time you see me; if you lose, well, you really should be more careful with your money.

David “Only Bet on a Sure Thing” Hammond

I read your post with interest, since I'm just a casual observer of horse racing and am always interested in what others think of races. A co-worker and I were discussing the Derby and she mentioned the positions were announced yesterday. I told her about your post and noted that Sort It Out got #1.

I may just have to go to OTB tomorrow......thanks for the tip.....

Hmmm, time for a sober reassessment.

The winner of the pool (Bandini) went for pole position 15.

I’m now thinking that I may bet a boxed Trifecta: Bellamy Road, Bandini and Afleet Alex. Many pony pundits (e.g., Roxy Roxborough, Steve Fuggitte) believe these are all contenders for the top spots, especially Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex (so maybe an Exacta with just those two makes more sense…yeah, that’s the way I’m going…for the moment).

I’m still putting some down on Sort It Out (for mystical reasons I cannot disclose); at 50-1, a two buck bet brings home a C note.

If you love the long shots (as do I), then Spanish Chestnut (the alleged “rabbit” for Bandini, and one fast pony) is at pole position 13 and, like Sort It Out, this horse is now 50-1...and may have a better position (nobody wanted the #1 position, though, it’s winningest in Derby history).

It’s a horserace, after all, so don’t gamble the nest egg, though throughout the next 48 hours, let us recall the golden words of Bonetti’s Law: “The Less You Bet, the More You Lose when You Win.”

It is a great shame that Arlington Park Racecourse is not open until the 13th; with the beautiful weekend coming up, it’d be transcendental to put on the straw hat and whoop it up to fabulous live thoroughbred racing in Chicagoland while awaiting the action at Churchill Downs.

Hammond

High Fly baby, High Fly!!!

I'm still struggling with my line up, although I feel a long shot best is always fun. I don't bet much at all and will probably place 2 - 3 bets for not more than $50 total. Favorites or not, it's a race and what happened in the past doesn't necessarily mean anything tomorrow.

I have a very interesting Superfecta history; I'm 2 for 2. I have to place one Superfecta bet.....just to see if it's a fluke.

so how did everybody do?

if your superfecta luck held, I'd think we'd heard about it (only 6 superfecta tickets sold anywhere - worth around $850K on $1 before taxes).

Simon wrote:so how did everybody do?

if your superfecta luck held, I'd think we'd heard about it (only 6 superfecta tickets sold anywhere - worth around $850K on $1 before taxes).

I picked the wrong long shot.

Few saw Giacomo coming up from 12th to win, but I think one of the superfecta winners (the jomoke who lost his ticket) had the right idea: buy $100 worth of tickets, and let the computer pick half exacta and half superfecta. It's as good a system as any.

Hammond

David Hammond wrote:I picked the wrong long shot.

Few saw Giacomo coming up from 12th to win, but I think one of the superfecta winners (the jomoke who lost his ticket) had the right idea: buy $100 worth of tickets, and let the computer pick half exacta and half superfecta. It's as good a system as any.

Hammond

especially true in as full a field as this year. favorites need not apply.

full disclosure: I won some money on Closing Argument in a show bet (paid $24.80). Too bad I didn't buy the place ($70.00)

Simon wrote:

David Hammond wrote:I picked the wrong long shot.

Few saw Giacomo coming up from 12th to win, but I think one of the superfecta winners (the jomoke who lost his ticket) had the right idea: buy $100 worth of tickets, and let the computer pick half exacta and half superfecta. It's as good a system as any.

Hammond

especially true in as full a field as this year. favorites need not apply.

full disclosure: I won some money on Closing Argument in a show bet (paid $24.80). Too bad I didn't buy the place ($70.00)

As it turned out, earlier on Friday, Pigmon/Rob had contacted me to see if I could meet up with him and Trixie-pea at Johnnie's, so in honor of that possibility, I put 20 bucks on Hot Rob (8-1) in the 9th race at Maywood, and won $160, most of which I "reinvested" in the derby, so at the end of the day (Saturday, that is), I was still up $8.00 (yippee).

Hammond

I hadn't gotten around to posting. None of my bets paid off. Came close in the trifecta - had 10, 12, 20 for $2. Woulda been a nice return. Funny thing is we (my friend and I) bet on Giacomo because 10 is one of her lucky numbers. Otherwise never considered him. Placed a couple on Sort It Out...couple of the longs; nothing major but I picked the wrong longs!

Placed a few supers just to see if I could go 3 for 3. Didn't happen (darn!) so I can keep my day job. I'm 2 for 3 in superfecta betting.

This was only the third time I've ever bet.